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Immigrant Amnesty: An Analysis of the US Chamber of Commerce Plan June 26, 2007

Posted by Daniel Downs in economics, globalism, illegal immigrants, immigration reform, Income, news, political economy, politics, taxes, wages, wealth.

This an update to The Commerce Plan for Immigration Reform.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce leaders are among those singing President Bush’s tune on immigrant amnesty. They propose an immigration reform plan propped up by four pillars.

One pillar proposes to increase border security, which echoes the twice-failed bill being debated in Washington. They want illegal alien workers as well as carefully screened immigrants permitted to work and reside in America. This will allow law enforcement to focus their resources on criminals and terrorists. Most Americans have agreed on securing the borders for many years, even after Congress opened them to all aliens whether criminal or not. Since 9/11 and 12 million aliens later, Congress once again claims they will secure America’s borders.

An additional point about border security must be made. Secure borders means more than keeping out terrorists. In a recent Arizona Daily Star article, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano were complaining to Washington about increased drug related violence along their states’ borders. Texas is another border state also troubled by drug dealers, gangs, and violence. The Washington Times ran an article a few month ago emphasizing the seriousness of the large number of weapons, explosives, and drugs being smuggled across the border. Civilians are not the only ones being killed by drug dealers and gangs so are border police and National Guard patrols.

Since the loud complaints by political leaders from the border states, Congress has revamped the two failed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bills allocating more money and resources for border security. However, border security is not the only problem created by 12 million illegal aliens.

Beyond securing American borders, securing citizens from those aliens who steal, kill, and commit other crimes is another issue lawmakers and alien sympathizers are silent about. According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) estimates, they number about 597,000. There is no doubt many illegal aliens are descent men and women only seeking a better life for themselves and their families. Yet, no matter how many their numbers, the problem of the many un-prosecuted criminals still remains.

Pillar two of the US Chamber’s proposed plan is so important I quote it in its entirety:

“Second, we need a carefully monitored essential worker program to prepare for our nation’s future labor demand in a way that is smart and fair. Over the next 10 years, the greatest job growth will occur in occupations that require little or no formal education and training. With unemployment at a near-record low and 77 million baby boomers nearing retirement, who will fill essential jobs that are vital to our economy?”

Notice the statement about job growth. Future jobs will be in sectors not requiring math, science, engineering, college, or training for highly skilled positions. This is a very important revelation. If manufacturing jobs are transferring to other countries and highly skilled work will be minimal, what remains are service jobs. Americans must realize “pillar two” refers to more poverty wages, more wealth disparity, and less enjoyment of the American dream, according to the business community.

Actually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the greatest job growth will be in the professional job sector with the great increases in computer, medical, science, social service and education jobs. The service sector will produce the second highest number of jobs by 2014. If skilled manual labor jobs like those in construction, installation, and repair are combined, there may be even more jobs generate in those occupations by 2014 than in the professional sector.

Another erroneous implication of pillar two is that 12 million illegal aliens will be necessary to fill unskilled service jobs as current American youth will fill the job vacancies left by retiring baby-boomers. Illegal alien workers are already taking away jobs from American citizens. In a study entitled “Drop Outs: Immigrant Entry and Native Exit From the Labor Market, 2000-2005,” Steven A. Camarota shows a strong correlation between increases of new immigrants workers—half are illegal aliens–and increases in unemployment among American citizens. Even though the national unemployment rate has been between 5%-6%, non-immigrant Americans with no more than a high school diploma is much higher. According to Camarota, the percent of unemployed Americans who did not graduate from high school decreased from 59% in 2000 to 56% by 2005, and the rate of decline of unemployed Americans with only a high school diploma was from 78% in 2000 to 75% by 2005. During this same period, the number of newly employed less educated immigrants rose by 1.6 million, while unemployment of less educated non-immigrant Americans increased by nearly 2.5 million. Camarota also estimates the total number of illegal aliens in the work force at about 5 million. What is important to understand is that most of the illegal aliens are taking away unskilled and semi-skilled jobs from similarly educated Americans.

In another study entitled “Low Salaries for Low Skills: Wages and Skill Levels for H-1B Computer Workers, 2005,” John Miano shows how the guest worker program for high-tech jobs permits companies to jeopardize employment of Americans in computer and other technological fields by paying guest workers low wages. Summarizing his findings, Miano wrote, “Wages for H-1B workers averaged $12,000 below the median wage for U.S. workers in the same occupation and location.”

Both of these studies point to a problem for American young. Most of the new immigrant workers, illegal aliens, and guest workers are young. All of them are negatively affecting the employment opportunities and wage levels of America’s young workers. If Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates prove correct, the competition for jobs will only increase. Many of America’s youth will be forced accept lower wages or face unemployment. That is if American citizens do not stop Congress from passing the anti-American immigration bill.

A third pillar is a recommendation to follow the proposed legislation of making illegal aliens legal resident workers. The US Chamber of Commerce claims “other alternative proposals, such as mass deportations … are indefensible and impractical. Even if we succeeded…, our economy would slow dramatically.” How could putting millions of unemployed American citizens back to work slow the economy? The question raised here is would deporting the illegal aliens be economically feasible? Would the cost of deportation be greater than the economic benefits in taxes and increased cash flow?

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 10 year estimate, the new immigration bill will cost taxpayers $73 billion. All new tax revenue ($57 billion) will be collected solely from the social security tax. The CBO also estimates a $9 billion decrease in income tax revenue because businesses will increase tax deductions and because amnesty will allow many of the12 million illegal aliens to file for income tax credits and deductions. When estimating the economic impact over a twenty-year period, the CBO expects costs will double. In “Amnesty Will Cost U.S. Taxpayers at Least $2.6 Trillion,” Robert Rector estimates retiring illegal aliens will cost Americans $144.5 billion a year beginning in 2027. That is double the total amount the CBO estimates illegal aliens will have paid into Social Security. These estimates do not include past and present costs for educating their children, for emergency medical treatment, or for their incarceration. According to Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), the current annual costs for those three services is about $36 billion. FAIR also estimates that in 10 years those costs will have increased to $61.5 billion and to $106.3 by 2020.

If the Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill passes, will not those costs be eliminated? According to CBO estimates, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act will allow 12 million more immigrants to enter the country over a twenty year period. The majority will have entered either as illegal aliens or as guest workers. However, guest workers who remain in the country after their permit has expired also become illegal aliens. Therefore, it may be expected that a majority of future immigrants will be illegal aliens.

How does the cost of keeping 12 million illegal aliens compare to the costs of deporting them? Using estimates from a Center for American Progress study by Rajeev Goyle and David A. Jaeger, the total cost of deporting every illegal alien would be about $297 billion over a 5 year period. Their actual estimate assumes 1-2 million illegal aliens would leave on their own. Assuming 2 million left on their own, the projected costs to deport 10 million illegal aliens would be $239 billion. Over the same 5-year period, the costs of social services mentioned above would decrease by $180 billion. Over the same time period, the federal government would save $37 billion of the $73 billion increase projected by the CBO. Harvard Economist George Borjas recently estimated wage loss due to the current immigrant population at around $350 billion a year. That means about $175 billion in wages is lost to illegal aliens. If Borjas figures are correct, American workers would gain up to $875 billion in lost wages over the five-year period. Contrary to Goyle and Jaeger, the above figures prove deporting the 12 million illegal aliens would be not only economically feasible but in the best interest of American taxpayers and workers.

It is difficult to believe that the business community, who has and will gain by lower wages, is ignorant of these facts, which also reinforces the long held view by many that profit is more important than the good of all Americans.

The last pillar in the plan of the US Chamber of Commerce proposes guarantees of protection for the rights and human dignity of the illegal aliens cum documented immigrants. Some confusion is evident is this statement. Legal immigrants have all the rights and protections of citizens. It is illegal aliens who are a problem. Even so, illegal aliens with or without amnesty earn wages, enjoy welfare, their children go to American schools, and they receive health care, and enjoy other benefits of living in America. The only thing amnesty would do is guarantee them the full benefits of social welfare policies while reducing labor costs. It seems to me this pillar is actually about the possibility of illegal aliens cum legal resident workers needing protection from legal immigrants who may be angered by such political hypocrisy and favoritism.

Whatever pillar four actually means, American citizens need their freedom and dignity protected from globalists and their legislative agenda. Such is the agenda of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the businesses they represent, and their supportive politicians in Washington.

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1. Pings,trackbacks and hat tips… « in2thefray - June 29, 2007

[…] thestateofamerica.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/immigrant-amnesty-an-analysis-of-the-us-chamber-of-commer… […]

2. Presidential Candidates Pro Illegal Immigrants: Giving Social Security Benefits and Making English the Official Language « The State of America - July 20, 2007

[…] resources and enforceable laws to eliminate illegal aliens in the first place. As demonstrated in Immigrant Amnesty: An Analysis of the US Chamber of Commerce Plan, it is not only economically feasible to remove all illegal immigrants but it would be financially […]

3. Roland D. Almazan, MBA - May 13, 2010

Next election all American Citizens should come together take back America and be heard by outvoting all politicians who are Illegal immigrant symphatizers – the attorney general of San Francisco, the mayor of Los Angeles, etc. Illegal Immigration is costing this country the standard of living for all citizens. I consider all illegal symphatizers as traitors of this country.

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